Long Term Projection of Energy Demand in Kalimantan Region: LEAP Model Application

Energy is a critical element in driving economic sectors, with oil being a significant feedstock worldwide. Its strategic importance is undeniable in supporting the global economy. However, consumerization, which refers to excessive consumption and dependence on resources, has contributed to crises in numerous countries across different regions. Energy consumption is also a severe problem worldwide, especially in industrialized countries, including Kalimantan, Indonesia. The dominant primary energy type in the energy supply mix in 2020 is coal, accounting for about 38.5% of the national total, followed by oil at about 32.8%, gas at about 17.4%, and the rest at about 11.3% through New Renewable Energy (NRE). Therefore, it is necessary to review the energy planning. This paper examines the Long Term Projection of Energy Demand in the Kalimantan Region. Scenarios that are developed include historical data and intervention, which are simulated using the Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP) software. In addition, the basic assumptions used to obtain the projections of population to 2045 are derived from PMAS documents but use a flat or sustainable growth rate of 0.3% from 2045 to 2060, while the GDP growth rate is calculated as a critical resource based on Macro Planning Statistical Analysis (PMAS) by BAPPENAS, Indonesia's National Development Planning Agency. The results of this study are essential to determine the electrification energy demand in Indonesia from various sectors such as the household, commercial, industry, transportation, and others sectors. Thus, the result shows that Kalimantan's household sector electrification energy demand recorded a 2.14% growth rate, while the commercial and industrial sectors energy demand recorded higher growth rates of 6.98% and 6.41%, respectively. The transportation sector, the road transportation sector, which is expected to grow significantly in the future, is the most significant contributor to electricity demand. Road transportation sector electrification energy demand recorded a 25.25%.

Source :
https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/10257313